Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Builds Captive Prebaked Anode Project 

Entering Q2, refinery maintenance further increased, and domestic supply continued to decline. However, with the arrival of previously shipped goods, port petroleum coke inventories began to enter a buildup cycle. Demand-side performance was weak, with downstream enterprises lacking purchasing motivation, and US-China trade frictions also cooled traders' buying sentiment, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, considering shipping schedules and the arrival of previous orders, SMM expects petroleum coke imports in Q2 to still increase MoM. In the long term, with the continuation of trade frictions and further adjustments in domestic market supply and demand, subsequent petroleum coke imports are expected to decline.

Brief comment: During the period, a certain aluminum enterprise in Shandong adjusted the benchmark tender price for prebaked anode in April 2025, up 139 yuan/mt MoM. At the same time, another large prebaked anode sales company in China also raised its sales price for April, up 173 yuan/mt MoM. Notably, in terms of raw materials, both petroleum coke and coal tar pitch market conditions weakened. According to SMM calculations, as of April 7, the cost of prebaked anode in China was about 5,365 yuan/mt, down about 11% from March 6. With the increase in prebaked anode prices in April and the reduction in cost-side pressure, assuming January as the production cycle, SMM calculations show that the theoretical profit situation of prebaked anode this month improved significantly, with the loss amount down about 282 yuan/mt MoM, although it is still in the loss range, it has shown significant improvement. Currently, the number of enterprises undergoing maintenance in refineries is high, and there is still an expectation of supply-side reduction for petroleum coke. Although downstream purchasing sentiment improved after entering April, overall, just-in-time procurement remains the mainstay, and downstream demand provides weak support for the continued rise in petroleum coke prices. Based on this, it is expected that petroleum coke prices will mainly fluctuate in April. In view of this, SMM expects prebaked anode prices to remain stable next month. Subsequently, it is necessary to continue to closely monitor the operating dynamics of prebaked anode and downstream aluminum enterprises.

In March 2025, prebaked anode production saw significant growth, benefiting from improved operating conditions in some regions and additional production days compared to February. Currently, prebaked anode enterprises strictly organize production based on orders, and industry supply remains ample. On the demand side, domestic aluminum operating capacity is steadily climbing, and overseas orders in 2025 are highly optimistic, indicating strong demand for prebaked anode in both domestic and overseas markets. In the short term, prebaked anode enterprises are operating steadily, with prices continuing to rise and downstream demand steadily increasing. SMM predicts that prebaked anode enterprises' operating rates are likely to remain high and stable in April. Moving forward, it is essential to closely monitor the operating conditions of prebaked anode and downstream aluminum enterprises to promptly grasp industry dynamics and market trends.

Overall, at the beginning of 2025, prebaked anode export orders performed well, increasing by about one-third compared to the same period last year, especially for orders to Indonesia and Canada, which saw significant growth. However, orders to Malaysia decreased significantly, mainly due to a reduction in demand from Malaysian aluminum enterprises following a sudden accident that led to capacity shutdowns. According to SMM, the overall performance of export orders in 2025 was excellent, primarily due to increased demand from new capacity additions and capacity recovery in the overseas aluminum market. Since Q1, domestic prebaked anode prices have risen substantially, supported by a sharp increase in raw material prices, and overseas order prices have also increased accordingly. Based on current information, SMM expects prebaked anode exports in Q1 2025 to be around 550,000 mt.